Don’t Compare Blue Origin’s Success to SpaceX’s Failures

Comment

Image Credits: Official U.S. Navy Page (opens in a new window) / Flickr (opens in a new window) under a CC BY 2.0 (opens in a new window) license.

Emily Calandrelli

Contributor

Emily Calandrelli is a producer and the host of FOX’s Xploration Outer Space.

More posts from Emily Calandrelli

Last week the space tourism company Blue Origin became the first company to launch a rocket into space and land it safely back down on the ground. The concept seems simple enough. Yet, to the space industry, this is an historic accomplishment because it means a big step toward rocket reusability.

Blue Origin founder, Jeff Bezos, announced the feat with his very first tweet.

Currently, there are no working reusable rockets on the market. When you launch something into space on a rocket it’s a one and done mission.

You throw away nearly the entire launch vehicle, which means millions of dollars going to waste. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has likened this to throwing away a $300 million 747 after just one flight.

We can imagine how expensive airplane tickets would be if that were the case. Some have estimated that a reusable rocket could cut the cost of a launch 100 fold. To be certain, this would be a true game changer for the space industry.

However, the space industry is more diverse today than ever before and not all reusable rockets are created equal. After Blue Origin’s successful test many suggested that SpaceX, who is working on their own reusable orbital rocket, was falling behind.

SpaceX has attempted to softly land the first stage of its Falcon 9 rocket after returning from space on a barge in the ocean two separate times. Both tests ended in explosions. Musk was quick to point out the difference between his Falcon 9 and Bezos’ New Shepard shortly after congratulating the Blue Origin founder.

Blue Origin’s suborbital rocket, New Shepard, is designed to carry up to six paying passengers briefly to space (100 kilometers altitude) and right back down to the ground. SpaceX rockets are designed to be able to bring payloads into, not just orbit, but all the way up to geostationary transfer orbit (or GTO as Musk refers to in his tweet), which can be as high as 90,000 kilometers altitude.

As one can imagine, these two different altitudes require very different rocket capabilities. Musk points out that getting to space only requires Mach 3 speeds while traveling to GTO requires Mach 30.

However, it is important to note that the first stage that SpaceX is attempting to recover is not reaching this altitude or speed. In fact the Falcon 9 first stage doesn’t reach orbit before it is landed and recovered.

Musk acknowledged this but noted that the Falcon 9 first stage is a bulkier rocket than New Shepard.

Embed Tweet:

Blue Origin spokesperson, Jessica Pieczonka, said “SpaceX is only trying to recover their first stage booster, which is of course suborbital. The SpaceX first stage does an in-space deceleration burn to make their re-entry more benign. If anything, the Blue Origin booster may be the one that flies through the harsher re-entry environment. Finally, the hardest part is probably the final landing segment which is the same for both boosters.”

The two companies seem determined to compare themselves to each other, even though it’s a bit like comparing apples to oranges. The SpaceX Falcon 9 flies to an altitude of 124 miles, compared to New Shepard’s 62 mile peak altitude. Additionally, Falcon 9 is traveling around Mach 6 before falling back to Earth.

In addition to the peak altitude and speed difference, the Falcon 9 first stage is also is a completely different orientation before coming in for landing. While New Shepard remains mostly vertical, the Falcon 9 first stage is in a horizontal configuration, requiring SpaceX to do a complex flip maneuver before it comes in for a vertical landing.

This XKCD article explains that, “getting to space is easy. The problem is staying there.” Staying there requires a vehicle to go very, very fast, which is why SpaceX rockets are larger and more powerful than the spacecraft and rockets from suborbital companies like Blue Origin or even Virgin Galactic. Musk goes on to taunt Bezos by stating that SpaceX already achieved successful VTOL (Vertical Take Off and Landing) rocket tests back in 2013.

This is a bit misleading. Blue Origin is still the first company to successfully complete a VTOL test where the rocket actually reached space. The first part of Musk’s tweet refers to the SpaceX Grasshopper program which completed multiple successful VTOL tests, but the rocket was only launched to as high as 744 meters, less than 1% the altitude that the New Shepard rocket reached.

Musk’s second sentence refers to SpaceX’s tests to launch the Falcon 9 to orbit and bring back the first stage to land softly on barge in the ocean. None of these tests so far have been successful.

So while Blue Origin successfully completed a VTOL spaceflight and SpaceX has yet to successfully complete one of their own, it’s not entirely fair to compare the two companies’ achievements to date. Their successes could be considered separate unique milestones on two different paths.

Blue Origin is positioning themselves to sell directly to customers (wealthy space tourists) whereas SpaceX has positioned themselves to sell to large companies and the government (Orbital Sciences, NASA, Air Force, etc). These two strategies require vastly different rocket capabilities.

Even so, whatever type of rocket is being built, adding in the capability of reusability is a new, formally unachievable feat. With the news of New Shepard’s successful VTOL test, Blue Origin has started on the path of changing the very nature of rocket launches for suborbital flight.

More TechCrunch

Intuitive Machines made history when it became the first private company to land a spacecraft on the moon, so it makes sense to adapt that tech for Mars.

Intuitive Machines wants to help NASA return samples from Mars

As Google revamps itself for the AI era, offering AI overviews within its search results, the company is introducing a new way to filter for just text-based links. With the…

Google adds ‘Web’ search filter for showing old-school text links as AI rolls out

Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s longtime chief scientist and one of its co-founders, has left the company. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced the news in a post on X Tuesday evening. pic.twitter.com/qyPMIcvcsY…

Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI co-founder and longtime chief scientist, departs

Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket will take a crew to suborbital space for the first time in nearly two years later this month, the company announced on Tuesday.  The NS-25…

Blue Origin to resume crewed New Shepard launches on May 19

This will enable developers to use the on-device model to power their own AI features.

Google is building its Gemini Nano AI model into Chrome on the desktop

It ran 110 minutes, but Google managed to reference AI a whopping 121 times during Google I/O 2024 (by its own count). CEO Sundar Pichai referenced the figure to wrap…

Google mentioned ‘AI’ 120+ times during its I/O keynote

Firebase Genkit is an open source framework that enables developers to quickly build AI into new and existing applications.

Google launches Firebase Genkit, a new open source framework for building AI-powered apps

In the coming months, Google says it will open up the Gemini Nano model to more developers.

Patreon and Grammarly are already experimenting with Gemini Nano, says Google

As part of the update, Reddit also launched a dedicated AMA tab within the web post composer.

Reddit introduces new tools for ‘Ask Me Anything,’ its Q&A feature

Here are quick hits of the biggest news from the keynote as they are announced.

Google I/O 2024: Here’s everything Google just announced

LearnLM is already powering features across Google products, including in YouTube, Google’s Gemini apps, Google Search and Google Classroom.

LearnLM is Google’s new family of AI models for education

The official launch comes almost a year after YouTube began experimenting with AI-generated quizzes on its mobile app. 

Google is bringing AI-generated quizzes to academic videos on YouTube

Around 550 employees across autonomous vehicle company Motional have been laid off, according to information taken from WARN notice filings and sources at the company.  Earlier this week, TechCrunch reported…

Motional cut about 550 employees, around 40%, in recent restructuring, sources say

The keynote kicks off at 10 a.m. PT on Tuesday and will offer glimpses into the latest versions of Android, Wear OS and Android TV.

Google I/O 2024: Watch all of the AI, Android reveals

Google Play has a new discovery feature for apps, new ways to acquire users, updates to Play Points, and other enhancements to developer-facing tools.

Google Play preps a new full-screen app discovery feature and adds more developer tools

Soon, Android users will be able to drag and drop AI-generated images directly into their Gmail, Google Messages and other apps.

Gemini on Android becomes more capable and works with Gmail, Messages, YouTube and more

Veo can capture different visual and cinematic styles, including shots of landscapes and timelapses, and make edits and adjustments to already-generated footage.

Google Veo, a serious swing at AI-generated video, debuts at Google I/O 2024

In addition to the body of the emails themselves, the feature will also be able to analyze attachments, like PDFs.

Gemini comes to Gmail to summarize, draft emails, and more

The summaries are created based on Gemini’s analysis of insights from Google Maps’ community of more than 300 million contributors.

Google is bringing Gemini capabilities to Google Maps Platform

Google says that over 100,000 developers already tried the service.

Project IDX, Google’s next-gen IDE, is now in open beta

The system effectively listens for “conversation patterns commonly associated with scams” in-real time. 

Google will use Gemini to detect scams during calls

The standard Gemma models were only available in 2 billion and 7 billion parameter versions, making this quite a step up.

Google announces Gemma 2, a 27B-parameter version of its open model, launching in June

This is a great example of a company using generative AI to open its software to more users.

Google TalkBack will use Gemini to describe images for blind people

Google’s Circle to Search feature will now be able to solve more complex problems across psychics and math word problems. 

Circle to Search is now a better homework helper

People can now search using a video they upload combined with a text query to get an AI overview of the answers they need.

Google experiments with using video to search, thanks to Gemini AI

A search results page based on generative AI as its ranking mechanism will have wide-reaching consequences for online publishers.

Google will soon start using GenAI to organize some search results pages

Google has built a custom Gemini model for search to combine real-time information, Google’s ranking, long context and multimodal features.

Google is adding more AI to its search results

At its Google I/O developer conference, Google on Tuesday announced the next generation of its Tensor Processing Units (TPU) AI chips.

Google’s next-gen TPUs promise a 4.7x performance boost

Google is upgrading Gemini, its AI-powered chatbot, with features aimed at making the experience more ambient and contextually useful.

Google’s Gemini updates: How Project Astra is powering some of I/O’s big reveals

Veo can generate few-seconds-long 1080p video clips given a text prompt.

Google’s image-generating AI gets an upgrade